In 1992, political strategist James Carville famously quipped, “it’s the economy, stupid,” to prove a political point that Americans are more concerned about their wallets than just about any other issue.
And he was right. At the time, our economy was just emerging from recession, leaving many households struggling to pay bills as unemployment reached 7.8%.
But, while times were tough for many, colleges and universities began seeing an influx of new student enrollments. By the end of the decade, the total population of college students had grown by over 11%.
Now, let’s fast forward to the Great Recession. From 2006 to 2011, two year college enrollment, for example, grew by a whopping 33%…
Even though average household incomes fell by over 8%.
In 2009, during the height of the Great Recession, unemployment reached 9.9% (it’s highest in nearly two decades), however…
Overall enrollments grew at the fastest rate in over thirty years, with vocational school enrollments leaping a massive 20.2%.
The reason for the enrollment growth, as many economists agree, is simple… “it’s the economy, stupid.”
The phenomenon has been well documented. When economic times are tough, the American people turn to education to gain the knowledge and skills to either keep their jobs or land a new one. It’s called “countercyclical demand.”
And, with our unemployment rate now ticking up, and estimates showing a 52% chance of recession by May of 2025, colleges and universities may, once again, experience a bump in enrollments due to countercyclical demand.
Of course, nobody is hoping for a recession, but for colleges and universities, perhaps most especially fully online institutions, now is the time to prepare for one.
But preparation doesn’t simply mean “wait for new students to come to you.” No… It means right now is the time to increase outreach programs.
You see, Doug Shapiro, executive research director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center said in 2020 (speaking enrollments during a recession) …
“When the reality sets in that they’re not going to find another job, then they start thinking about school.
“And by the time they get through the whole process of finding a school and getting into a school, a year and a half to two years has gone by.”
This is precisely why new student outreach should begin immediately. With the prospect of a recession now reaching over 50% by spring 2025, some schools may not see a marked increase in enrollments until perhaps 2026.
For information on how Conversion Media Group can help you increase enrollments in your school, simply visit us HERE.
Or call +1 800 419 3201
New student outreach and online college enrollment initiatives are our expertise.
Early 1990s recession in the United States – Wikipedia
College Enrollment Statistics [2023]: Total + by Demographic (educationdata.org)
Postsecondary Enrollment Before, During and After the Great Recession (census.gov)
Real Median Household Income in the United States (MEHOINUSA672N) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
Historical U.S. Unemployment Rate by Year (investopedia.com)
Recession probability monthly projection U.S. 2025 | Statista
How the great recession affected higher education (hechingerreport.org)