College enrollment numbers for Fall 2025 have been good. Early estimates show 19.57 million undergrads are ready to hit the books: up about 290,000 students from the Fall of 2024.
Now, new data from the National College Attainment Network (NCAN) show Free Applications for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) for the high school class of 2025 have also increased.
But, far better than a simple, yet dramatic, increase over last year (17.5% higher than 2024), application completions have now reached pre-pandemic levels.
The overall completion rate, as estimated by NCAN, was 53.9%, up from 2024’s 47%. What makes this increase so particularly impressive is the fact that 2025’s high school seniors had roughly two fewer months to complete the form compared to their 2024 peers.[1]
Clearly, interest in obtaining a college education, when we combine the increase in estimated enrollments and FAFSA completions, is finally on the rise, comparatively.
However, this increase, as you may well know, is not only limited to brick-and-mortar colleges, but online colleges as well. We’ll get to the online college data in just a moment.
First…
While last year’s FAFSA rollout was a disaster, as evidenced by the two fewer weeks prospective students had to fill out the form, FAFSA for the 2026-2027 academic year is already open; albeit to a small pool of students, but open nonetheless.[2]
Now, should FAFSA open fully and on time, most students can begin the process of applying by October 1. Clearly, both traditional and online institutions are hoping this happens, rather than a repeat of last year’s delays.
However, while the enrollment data and the FAFSA data is wonderful news for higher ed, there is a dark cloud brewing for student loan holders.
TransUnion reported “Following the Resumption of Federal Collection Activities in May, Nearly One in Three Federal Student Loan Borrowers Find Themselves at Risk for Default.”[3]
Its analysis found that as of April 2025, “the latest month for which data are available, 31.0% of federal student loan borrowers with a payment due are 90 days or more past due.
Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion said, “We continue to see more and more federal student loan borrowers being reported as the 90+ days delinquent, making a larger number of consumers vulnerable to entering default and the start of collections activities.
“That said, based on the relatively small increase between March 2025 and April 2025, it is possible that the figures are close to peaking. We will continue to analyze data in the weeks and months to come to see if that bears out.”
Unfortunately for higher ed, an increase in default rates could potentially lead to an increase in borrowing costs for future students…
Making college even more expensive.
Now, back to some good news for online institutions…
A recent Gallup/Lumina Foundation poll of 14,000 non-credentialed U.S. adults, aged 18-59, showed that over 80% of those who have never enrolled in any higher ed program say they are likely to enroll within the next five years.
Further, a poll from Champlain College Online of over 2,000 US adults, aged 18-24, who are currently enrolled in college or are considering enrolling, shows that nearly 90% of them would consider an online program.[4]
For online institutions, this is fantastic news as the demographic of adult learners is a prime target for enrollment… and is the exact demographic Conversion Media Group (CMG) targets with its enrollment initiative programs.
You see, CMG is a national leader in online college enrollment initiatives. Through our various digital marketing programs, combined with our contact center operations, we can drive high intent EDU leads directly into your school’s enrollment department.
Give us a quick call at 1-800-419-3201 and we’ll explain exactly how.
With FAFSA applications and college enrollment both up, now’s the time to better market your online school to your prime targeted demo, the adult learner.
[1] https://www.ncan.org/news/705304/FAFSA-Completions-Bounce-Back-with-Class-of-2025-Return-to-Pre-Pandemic-Rates.htm
[2] https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/technology/fafsa-2026-27-opens-early-for-limited-students-5-essential-details-you-must-know/ar-AA1KcZDT?apiversion=v2&noservercache=1&domshim=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1&batchservertelemetry=1&noservertelemetry=1
[3] https://newsroom.transunion.com/june-2025-student-loan-update/
[4] https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20250508ph83568/data-reveals-growing-interest-from-younger-students-in-online-higher-education